Monday, May 30, 2011

Stanley Cup Finals 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions

It all comes down to this.

The best team in the West against the best team in the East.*

For the 6th straight year, the Western representative appears to be the stronger team. That's not really surprising - the West has had the better interconference record in every season since 1999-00, and often by a large margin.

I think Vancouver is clearly the better team here and that, if anything, the odds I've presented above understate their chances. That said, these two teams are close enough to one another where it should be a good series.

I'll take the Canucks to win in six games.

VAN in 6.

*As per my probability model. It's possible - perhaps even likely in Boston's case - that neither team is the best team in its respective conference. For what it's worth, I'd take a healthy Pittsburgh team over Boston all day every day. But I digress.


terrencechan said...

"if anything, the odds I've presented above understate [Vancouver's] chances"

Just curious in what way do you feel your model undervalues Vancouver?

JLikens said...

Good question - I should have elaborated.

Boston had an insane year in 2010-11 in terms of the percentages, which might flatter them in terms of their overall win probability, given that this was not the case in 2009-10.

That ought to enter into the calculus on some level, but I have no good way of accounting for it with respect to my model.

To give an example, my model gives Boston an advantage in terms of even strength goaltending (0.929 expected save percentage versus 0.926). Intuitively, though, I think it's more or less a wash.

I suspect a bayesian analysis - which I should have done but didn't - would reveal very similar talent estimates for Luongo and Thomas. said...

It is quite comparable in strength but It would be great to watch them play three consecutive match to see whom is the best.

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